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Carrefour: Carrefour's 2025 Earnings: Solid Performance and Strategic Progress

Carrefour's financial performance in 2025 was solid, with total sales for the year reaching EUR 24.3 billion in the fourth quarter, and like-for-like sales up 1.6% over the quarter. The recurring operating income for the group amounted to EUR 2.158 billion, or 2.6% of net sales. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 1.08, below analyst estimates of EUR 1.24. The company's EBITDA was stable, and net free cash flow was EUR 1.565 billion, excluding the impact of Italy.

CA.PA

EUR 16.95

1.74%

A-Score: 5.3/10

Publication date: February 17, 2026

Author: Analystock.ai

πŸ“‹ Highlights
  • Portfolio Restructuring: Full control of Carrefour Brazil, disposal of Carrefour Italy, and exclusivity agreement for Romania, aiming to streamline operations and focus on core markets.
  • France Market Share Recovery: Achieved 22% market share (highest since 2015) with 456 new convenience stores opened, driven by commercial model investments and price gap reduction.
  • Recurring Operating Income Growth: Group recurring operating income reached EUR 2.158 billion (2.6% of net sales), up 200 bps ex-Cora/Match, reflecting improved efficiency.
  • Dividend Increase & Special Payout: Proposed EUR 0.97/share ordinary dividend (+5.4%) and EUR 150M special dividend post-Romania disposal, yielding ~8.3% cash return.
  • Free Cash Flow & Cost Management: EUR 1.565B net free cash flow in 2025 (excluding Italy), with 2026 target of EUR 1.7B supported by lower CapEx (EUR 1.523B) and integration cost normalization.

Operational Highlights

Carrefour's operational performance was strong in key markets. In France, the company continued to invest in its commercial model and pricing, narrowing the price gap with the market, and its market share increased to 22%, its highest point since 2015. The company opened a record 456 new convenience stores, driven by a record number of new partners joining Carrefour. In Spain, Carrefour benefited from solid momentum in a dynamic market, with food sales showing strong growth, driven by fresh products.

Strategic Progress

Carrefour made significant strategic progress in 2025, including taking full control of Carrefour Brazil, disposing of Carrefour Italy, and signing an exclusivity agreement for Carrefour Romania. The disposal of Carrefour Romania is based on an enterprise value of EUR 823 million, implying a valuation multiple of 4.8x 2025 EBITDA. The company plans to use the proceeds from the disposal to pay a special dividend and retain some on the balance sheet for flexibility.

Valuation and Dividend

Carrefour's valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive dividend yield. The company's P/E Ratio is 31.03, and the Dividend Yield is 6.22%. The proposed ordinary cash dividend of EUR 0.97 per share represents a 5.4% increase compared to last year, and the special dividend of EUR 0.21 per share brings the total dividend to EUR 1.18 per share, which is a cash yield of approximately 8.3% on the basis of the share price as of December 31, 2025.

Outlook

Carrefour is confident in its prospects for 2026, driven by a good market outlook, solid underlying business dynamics, and supportive technical swings. The company expects an additional EUR 75 million of contribution to net free cash flow in 2026, which will decrease the net cost of debt. The company's free cash flow target for 2026 is EUR 1.7 billion, which is within sight, driven by the normalization of financial results and lower restructuring cash-outs.

Carrefour's A-Score